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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Luzern and FC Zurich share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Luzern and FC Zurich finished level at 1-1 at Swissporarena, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 1.73 xG and FC Zurich 1.31 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 1.11 / defence 0.92 against FC Zurich attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 46% | Draw 25% | FC Zurich 28%, with FC Luzern to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 67%, FC Zurich 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Luzern's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

FC Zurich's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Luzern 1.41 PPG, FC Zurich 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Luzern (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights