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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Winterthur defy the odds to beat FC Luzern 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Winterthur beat FC Luzern 1-2 at Swissporarena, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 3.03 xG and FC Winterthur 1.55 xG, a combined 4.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Luzern fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 1.22 / defence 1.41 against FC Winterthur attack 0.73 / defence 1.47, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 66% | Draw 18% | FC Winterthur 16%, with FC Luzern to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a FC Winterthur win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 67% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 72%, FC Winterthur 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Luzern's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

FC Winterthur's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Luzern arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with FC Winterthur winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Luzern (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights