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Shock result as FC Thun defy the odds to beat FC Luzern 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat FC Luzern 1-2 at Swissporarena, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 1.90 xG and FC Thun 1.17 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Luzern fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FC Thun outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against FC Thun attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 53% | Draw 25% | FC Thun 22%, with FC Luzern to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a FC Thun win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 50%, FC Thun 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Luzern managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.