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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Luzern and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Luzern and FC ST. Gallen finished level at 2-2 at Swissporarena, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 1.67 xG and FC ST. Gallen 2.24 xG, a combined 3.91. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 1.21 / defence 1.28 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.20 / defence 0.81, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 28% | Draw 23% | FC ST. Gallen 50%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 73%, FC ST. Gallen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Luzern's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Luzern 1.30 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights