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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Luzern cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC ST. Gallen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Luzern beat FC ST. Gallen 2-0 at swissporarena, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 1.61 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.46 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 1.11 / defence 1.09 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 40% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 33%, with FC Luzern to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 53%, FC ST. Gallen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Luzern's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Luzern 1.41 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Luzern win broke the near-deadlock. FC Luzern (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights