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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Luzern and FC Sion share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Swissporarena, Regular Season - 8, as FC Luzern and FC Sion drew 3-3 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 1.41 xG and FC Sion 1.53 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC Luzern beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Sion outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against FC Sion attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 33% | Draw 29% | FC Sion 38%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 67%, FC Sion 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Luzern's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Luzern 1.40 PPG, FC Sion 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Luzern (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights