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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Luzern edge out FC Sion 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Luzern beat FC Sion 2-1 at swissporarena, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 2.52 xG and FC Sion 1.19 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 1.14 / defence 1.06 against FC Sion attack 0.91 / defence 1.33, drawn from 57/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 65% | Draw 19% | FC Sion 15%, with FC Luzern to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 62%, FC Sion 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Luzern's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Luzern 1.62 PPG, FC Sion 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Luzern win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights