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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Basel 1893 edge out FC Luzern 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Luzern 1-2 at Swissporarena, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 1.67 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.72 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 1.13 / defence 1.24 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 38% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 40%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 69%, FC Basel 1893 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Luzern's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Luzern (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights