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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 finished level at 1-1 at swissporarena, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 1.63 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.69 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.32 / defence 0.89, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 37% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 39%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 55%, FC Basel 1893 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Luzern's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Luzern 1.44 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights