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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Lugano and Servette FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Lugano and Servette FC finished level at 1-1 at Stadio di Cornaredo, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Lugano 2.15 xG and Servette FC 1.55 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Lugano fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Lugano attack 1.16 / defence 0.84 against Servette FC attack 1.18 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Lugano 50% | Draw 23% | Servette FC 27%, with FC Lugano to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Lugano 52%, Servette FC 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Lugano's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Servette FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Lugano 1.56 PPG, Servette FC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Lugano (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights