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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Servette FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Lugano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC beat FC Lugano 0-2 at Stadio di Cornaredo, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Lugano 1.44 xG and Servette FC 1.66 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Lugano fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Lugano attack 1.02 / defence 1.13 against Servette FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.87, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Lugano 32% | Draw 25% | Servette FC 42%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Lugano 62%, Servette FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Lugano's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Servette FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Lugano 1.67 PPG, Servette FC 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Servette FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Lugano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Servette FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights