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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Lugano edge out Lausanne 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Lugano beat Lausanne 2-1 at Stadio di Cornaredo, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Lugano 1.78 xG and Lausanne 1.04 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Lugano attack 1.06 / defence 0.81 against Lausanne attack 0.83 / defence 0.95, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Lugano 52% | Draw 28% | Lausanne 19%, with FC Lugano to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Lugano 51%, Lausanne 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Lugano's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Lausanne's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Lugano 1.54 PPG, Lausanne 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Lugano win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights