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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lausanne run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Lugano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne beat FC Lugano 1-4 at Stadio di Cornaredo, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Lugano 1.76 xG and Lausanne 0.91 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Lausanne outscored their 0.91 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Lugano attack 1.25 / defence 0.85 against Lausanne attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Lugano 57% | Draw 25% | Lausanne 19%, with FC Lugano to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Lausanne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Lugano 60%, Lausanne 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Lugano's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Lausanne's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Lugano arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Lugano (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights