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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Thun defy the odds to beat FC Lugano 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat FC Lugano 1-2 at Stadio di Cornaredo, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Lugano 1.86 xG and FC Thun 1.14 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Lugano fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FC Thun outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Lugano attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against FC Thun attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Lugano 54% | Draw 23% | FC Thun 23%, with FC Lugano to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a FC Thun win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights