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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC ST. Gallen defy the odds to beat FC Lugano 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Lugano 1-2 at Stadio di Cornaredo, Championship Group - 36, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Lugano 1.48 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.46 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Lugano attack 1.03 / defence 0.87 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.18 / defence 0.84, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Lugano 36% | Draw 29% | FC ST. Gallen 35%, with FC Lugano to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual FC ST. Gallen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Lugano 48%, FC ST. Gallen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Lugano's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Lugano 1.60 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights