🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC ST. Gallen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Lugano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Lugano 1-3 at Stadio di Cornaredo, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Lugano 1.72 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.27 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Lugano attack 0.94 / defence 0.80 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.16 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Lugano 48% | Draw 24% | FC ST. Gallen 28%, with FC Lugano to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual FC ST. Gallen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Lugano 53%, FC ST. Gallen 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Lugano's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Lugano 1.49 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC Lugano (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights