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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Lugano and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio di Cornaredo, Regular Season - 32, as FC Lugano and FC ST. Gallen drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Lugano 1.49 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.10 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Lugano attack 0.99 / defence 1.13 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Lugano 45% | Draw 27% | FC ST. Gallen 27%, with FC Lugano to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Lugano 59%, FC ST. Gallen 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Lugano's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Lugano 1.64 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights