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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Lugano edge out FC Sion 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Lugano beat FC Sion 2-1 at Stadio di Cornaredo, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Lugano 1.69 xG and FC Sion 1.07 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Lugano attack 1.09 / defence 0.84 against FC Sion attack 0.87 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Lugano 49% | Draw 30% | FC Sion 21%, with FC Lugano to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Lugano 51%, FC Sion 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Lugano's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Lugano 1.54 PPG, FC Sion 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Lugano win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights