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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Lugano and FC Sion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio di Cornaredo, Regular Season - 15, as FC Lugano and FC Sion drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Lugano 1.48 xG and FC Sion 1.42 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Lugano attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against FC Sion attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Lugano 39% | Draw 25% | FC Sion 36%, with FC Lugano to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Lugano 54%, FC Sion 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Lugano's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Lugano 1.46 PPG, FC Sion 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights