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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Lugano edge out FC Sion 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Lugano beat FC Sion 3-2 at Stadio di Cornaredo, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Lugano 2.12 xG and FC Sion 1.12 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Lugano beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Sion outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Lugano attack 1.21 / defence 1.11 against FC Sion attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 53/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Lugano 59% | Draw 23% | FC Sion 18%, with FC Lugano to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Lugano 65%, FC Sion 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Lugano's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Lugano arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. FC Lugano (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights