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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Basel 1893 run riot with a 2-5 hammering of FC Lugano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Lugano 2-5 at Stadio di Cornaredo, Championship Round - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Lugano 1.16 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.88 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. FC Lugano beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Basel 1893 outscored their 1.88 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Lugano attack 0.96 / defence 1.14 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.40 / defence 0.78, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Lugano 23% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 54%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Lugano 57%, FC Basel 1893 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Lugano's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Lugano 1.62 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Lugano (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights