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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Lugano and FC Basel 1893 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Lugano and FC Basel 1893 finished level at 2-2 at Stadio di Cornaredo, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Lugano 1.68 xG and FC Basel 1893 2.00 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Lugano attack 1.22 / defence 1.09 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.45 / defence 0.95, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Lugano 33% | Draw 22% | FC Basel 1893 45%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Lugano 61%, FC Basel 1893 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Lugano's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Lugano 1.71 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights