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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Basel 1893 run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Yverdon Sport.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat Yverdon Sport 5-0 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.98 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.98 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yverdon Sport landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.11 / defence 0.84 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.95 / defence 1.19, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 60% | Draw 23% | Yverdon Sport 17%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 51%, Yverdon Sport 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.53 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.51 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights