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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Basel 1893 and Servette FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 and Servette FC finished level at 1-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.57 xG and Servette FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.81 / defence 0.63 against Servette FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 25% | Servette FC 24%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 62%, Servette FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Servette FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.89 PPG, Servette FC 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights