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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne finished level at 1-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.93 xG and Lausanne 1.29 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.15 / defence 0.89 against Lausanne attack 1.21 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 25%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 52%, Lausanne 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Lausanne's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.46 PPG, Lausanne 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights