🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as FC Basel 1893 edge out Grasshoppers 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat Grasshoppers 1-0 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.47 xG and Grasshoppers 1.02 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Grasshoppers landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.83 / defence 0.78 against Grasshoppers attack 0.90 / defence 1.05, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 44% | Draw 33% | Grasshoppers 23%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 62%, Grasshoppers 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Grasshoppers's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights