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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Basel 1893 edge out Grasshoppers 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat Grasshoppers 2-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.77 xG and Grasshoppers 1.21 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.13 / defence 0.86 against Grasshoppers attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 50% | Draw 25% | Grasshoppers 25%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 64%, Grasshoppers 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Grasshoppers's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights