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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Basel 1893 edge out FC Zurich 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Zurich 2-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.46 xG and FC Zurich 0.91 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.78 / defence 0.72 against FC Zurich attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 48% | Draw 30% | FC Zurich 22%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 62%, FC Zurich 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Zurich's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights