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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC ST. Gallen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Basel 1893.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Basel 1893 1-3 at St. Jakob-Park, Championship Group - 37, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.40 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.50 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.97 / defence 0.89 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.18 / defence 0.84, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 33% | Draw 29% | FC ST. Gallen 38%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 62%, FC ST. Gallen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.74 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.51 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights