FC Basel 1893 0-0 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. Jakob-Park plays host to FC Basel 1893 versus FC ST. Gallen in Super League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 30 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
FC Basel 1893 (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893's home record at St. Jakob-Park: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St. Jakob-Park. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — FC Basel 1893 are significantly better at St. Jakob-Park than their overall form suggests.
FC ST. Gallen have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.80 for FC ST. Gallen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Basel 1893 lead 3W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 1–2 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC Basel 1893 half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC ST. Gallen half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 60% and FC ST. Gallen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 64% | FC ST. Gallen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.65 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.956 / defence 0.782 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.286 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.799 / away 1.435. FC ST. Gallen have an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. FC Basel 1893's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 FC Basel 1893 games / 47 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 43% | Draw 24% | FC ST. Gallen 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | FC ST. Gallen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 40% | FC ST. Gallen 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 43% | Draw 24% | FC ST. Gallen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.65 / FC ST. Gallen 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.956 / def 0.782 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.286 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.799 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.44
FC ST. Gallen xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Basel 1893 0 - 0 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 43% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (7 meetings): FC Basel 1893 3W | Draws 2 | FC ST. Gallen 2W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — FC ST. Gallen's attack (1.29x) against FC Basel 1893's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.21
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
3.10
1.44
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
10%
9.92
6%
15.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.44 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 52 games, going 29W 9D 14L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.52 PPG from 52 outings (22W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.85 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.52 for FC ST. Gallen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 17W 2D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.24 points per game from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.58 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 29W 9D 14L in their last 52 games (1.85 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 22W 13D 17L in their last 52 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 2.12 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.24 PPG.
Have FC Basel 1893 or FC ST. Gallen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Basel 1893 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC ST. Gallen in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC ST. Gallen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 3-0 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Basel 1893
3
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 52%, FC ST. Gallen 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (FC Basel 1893) and 52% (FC ST. Gallen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC Basel 1893's games and 72% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 52% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Basel 1893's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 15, as FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.65 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.44 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 fell 1.7 short of their projected output. FC ST. Gallen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.96 / defence 0.78 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.29 / defence 0.96, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 43% | Draw 24% | FC ST. Gallen 34%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 64%, FC ST. Gallen 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.85 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.