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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion finished level at 1-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.38 xG and FC Sion 0.94 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.82 / defence 0.64 against FC Sion attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 47% | Draw 27% | FC Sion 26%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 61%, FC Sion 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Sion's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights