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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Luzern defy the odds to beat FC Basel 1893 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Luzern beat FC Basel 1893 1-2 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.97 xG and FC Luzern 1.46 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.25 / defence 0.89 against FC Luzern attack 1.14 / defence 0.92, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 48% | Draw 24% | FC Luzern 28%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual FC Luzern win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 66%, FC Luzern 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

FC Luzern's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with FC Luzern winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Luzern (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights