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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Basel 1893 run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Luzern.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Luzern 4-0 at St. Jakob-Park, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 2.33 xG and FC Luzern 1.15 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Luzern landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.25 / defence 0.82 against FC Luzern attack 1.19 / defence 1.22, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 63% | Draw 20% | FC Luzern 17%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 55%, FC Luzern 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Luzern's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.59 PPG, FC Luzern 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. FC Luzern (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights