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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Basel 1893 edge out FC Luzern 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Luzern 2-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.93 xG and FC Luzern 1.29 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.18 / defence 0.89 against FC Luzern attack 1.16 / defence 1.02, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 25% | FC Luzern 24%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 51%, FC Luzern 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

FC Luzern's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.46 PPG, FC Luzern 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights