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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Basel 1893 and BSC Young Boys share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 32, as FC Basel 1893 and BSC Young Boys drew 3-3 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.69 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.11 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BSC Young Boys outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.87 / defence 0.75 against BSC Young Boys attack 1.05 / defence 1.13, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 48% | Draw 29% | BSC Young Boys 22%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 61%, BSC Young Boys 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.81 PPG, BSC Young Boys 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights