🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant FC Basel 1893 run riot with a 4-1 hammering of BSC Young Boys.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat BSC Young Boys 4-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.78 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.03 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.12 / defence 0.86 against BSC Young Boys attack 0.87 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 53% | Draw 27% | BSC Young Boys 20%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 65%, BSC Young Boys 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.90 PPG, BSC Young Boys 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights