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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as BSC Young Boys defy the odds to beat FC Basel 1893 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BSC Young Boys beat FC Basel 1893 1-2 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.50 xG and BSC Young Boys 0.71 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BSC Young Boys outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.06 / defence 0.81 against BSC Young Boys attack 0.72 / defence 0.85, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 55% | Draw 28% | BSC Young Boys 17%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a BSC Young Boys win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 51%, BSC Young Boys 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.46 PPG, BSC Young Boys 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BSC Young Boys win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights