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Stalemate at FC Aarau's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Brügglifeld, Final, as FC Aarau and Grasshoppers drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Aarau 1.72 xG and Grasshoppers 1.40 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Aarau fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Grasshoppers landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Aarau attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Grasshoppers attack 0.85 / defence 1.18, drawn from 0/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Aarau 43% | Draw 28% | Grasshoppers 29%, with FC Aarau to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Aarau 50%, Grasshoppers 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Grasshoppers arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Aarau conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Grasshoppers managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights