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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Aarau defy the odds to beat Grasshoppers 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Aarau beat Grasshoppers 1-0 at Stadion Brügglifeld, Relegation Round, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Aarau 1.26 xG and Grasshoppers 1.34 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Grasshoppers landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Aarau attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Grasshoppers attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 0/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Aarau 34% | Draw 27% | Grasshoppers 38%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC Aarau win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Aarau 100%, Grasshoppers 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Grasshoppers arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with FC Aarau winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Aarau scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Grasshoppers managed 0 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights