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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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BSC Young Boys and Yverdon Sport share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 31, as BSC Young Boys and Yverdon Sport drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 2.56 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.81 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. BSC Young Boys fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.33 / defence 0.69 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.93 / defence 1.28, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 74% | Draw 17% | Yverdon Sport 9%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 54%, Yverdon Sport 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights