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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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BSC Young Boys and Servette FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BSC Young Boys and Servette FC finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 2.48 xG and Servette FC 1.56 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. BSC Young Boys fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.25 / defence 0.97 against Servette FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.16, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 57% | Draw 21% | Servette FC 22%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 66%, Servette FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Servette FC's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BSC Young Boys 1.54 PPG, Servette FC 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights