🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant BSC Young Boys run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lausanne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BSC Young Boys beat Lausanne 3-0 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 2.07 xG and Lausanne 1.18 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. BSC Young Boys beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lausanne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.30 / defence 0.83 against Lausanne attack 1.18 / defence 0.96, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 57% | Draw 22% | Lausanne 21%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 55%, Lausanne 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Lausanne's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.28. That form edge translated into the three points. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights