BSC Young Boys 1-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BSC Young Boys at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 6 as BSC Young Boys welcome Lausanne to Stadion Wankdorf. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
BSC Young Boys — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. BSC Young Boys have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
BSC Young Boys at Stadion Wankdorf this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — BSC Young Boys are significantly better at Stadion Wankdorf than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Lausanne have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Lausanne have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lausanne's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
BSC Young Boys carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for BSC Young Boys, 1 for Lausanne and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Lausanne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BSC Young Boys 52% versus Lausanne 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BSC Young Boys 57% | Lausanne 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 2.21 xG and Lausanne 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.085 / defence 1.078 | Lausanne attack 0.734 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.271. Data: 38 BSC Young Boys games / 37 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 65% | Draw 19% | Lausanne 16%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Lausanne 6.25. The model has a clear lean to BSC Young Boys (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BSC Young Boys at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: BSC Young Boys 50% | Lausanne 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 65% | Draw 19% | Lausanne 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 56% | xG BSC Young Boys 2.21 / Lausanne 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.085 / def 1.078 | Lausanne attack 0.734 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.768 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lausanne xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
BSC Young Boys 1 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne part of?
BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 65% chance of winning, Lausanne a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both BSC Young Boys and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and Lausanne?
Record (3 meetings): BSC Young Boys 2W | Draws 0 | Lausanne 1W.
What form are BSC Young Boys and Lausanne in?
BSC Young Boys (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Lausanne (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BSC Young Boys's attack rating (1.08) and Lausanne's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus BSC Young Boys's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
65%
1.55
19%
5.18
16%
6.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
3.21
1.00
Lausanne xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
6.23
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
11%
9.09
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
2%
56.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.00 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BSC Young Boys's recent record stands at 22W 10D 10L from 42 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 18L across 42 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lausanne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours BSC Young Boys by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, BSC Young Boys have managed 14W 3D 3L from 20 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — BSC Young Boys are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lausanne's away record stands at 4W 5D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BSC Young Boys are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.29 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Early Season
Lausanne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BSC Young Boys and Lausanne in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 22W 10D 10L in their last 42 games (1.81 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 12W 12D 18L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or Lausanne away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 2.25 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.85 PPG.
Have BSC Young Boys or Lausanne been keeping clean sheets recently?
BSC Young Boys have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lausanne in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BSC Young Boys and Lausanne runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BSC Young Boys's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
BSC Young Boys
1
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, BSC Young Boys have won 5, Lausanne have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Lausanne 0-2 BSC Young Boys.
Who has won more matches between BSC Young Boys and Lausanne?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BSC Young Boys 50%, Lausanne 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for BSC Young Boys and 70% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BSC Young Boys keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Lausanne in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BSC Young Boys play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of BSC Young Boys's games and 60% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of BSC Young Boys's matches and 70% of Lausanne's.
Do BSC Young Boys and Lausanne tend to score early?
BSC Young Boys have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BSC Young Boys and Lausanne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys and Lausanne finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 2.21 xG and Lausanne 1.00 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. BSC Young Boys fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Lausanne attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 65% | Draw 19% | Lausanne 16%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 57%, Lausanne 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Lausanne's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Lausanne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.