BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees FC Thun travel to Stadion Wankdorf to take on BSC Young Boys. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, BSC Young Boys have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, BSC Young Boys have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stadion Wankdorf — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Wankdorf this season.
FC Thun — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.70. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Thun have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
BSC Young Boys are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, BSC Young Boys have won 3, FC Thun 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2026, ended 6–0 with BSC Young Boys winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
BSC Young Boys trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
FC Thun trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BSC Young Boys 71% and FC Thun 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (BSC Young Boys 77% | FC Thun 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 3.06 xG and FC Thun 2.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.369 / defence 1.177 | FC Thun attack 1.203 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.863 / away 1.764. BSC Young Boys carry an above-average attack strength of 1.369 — their λ of 3.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Thun have an above-average attack strength of 1.203 — the away xG of 2.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 BSC Young Boys games / 43 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 51% | Draw 17% | FC Thun 32%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 1.96 | Draw 5.88 | FC Thun 3.12. BSC Young Boys hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (17%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 92% | BTTS probability 87% | Total xG 5.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 92% — a total xG of 5.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 87% reflects that both xG figures (3.06 / 2.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BSC Young Boys are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 5.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 92% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 6.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 87% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: BSC Young Boys 90% | FC Thun 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 51% | Draw 17% | FC Thun 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 92% | BTTS 87% | xG BSC Young Boys 3.06 / FC Thun 2.50 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.369 / def 1.177 | FC Thun attack 1.203 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.863 / away 1.764 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.06
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
2.50
FC Thun xG
87%
BTTS
97%
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
80%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Stadion Wankdorf.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun part of?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 51% chance of winning, FC Thun a 32% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 87% probability that both BSC Young Boys and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 92%.
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC Thun?
Record (5 meetings): BSC Young Boys 3W | Draws 0 | FC Thun 2W.
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC Thun in?
BSC Young Boys (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. FC Thun (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
BSC Young Boys's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against FC Thun's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.06. The same calculation in reverse, FC Thun's attack versus BSC Young Boys's defence, projects 2.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-2, at 5.7%. Close behind: 2-2 (5.6%), 3-3 (4.8%). Even combined, the top three scorelines only cover 16% of the total probability — the model sees a wide spread of plausible outcomes rather than one clear shape to the game.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
51%
1.97
17%
5.91
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 2
5.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
5.6%
Draw
3 – 3
4.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.06
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
5.56
2.50
FC Thun xG
1.97
51%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
97%
Over 1.5
1.03
3%
Under 1.5
33.33
92%
Over 2.5
1.09
8%
Under 2.5
12.50
80%
Over 3.5
1.25
20%
Under 3.5
5.00
65%
Over 4.5
1.54
35%
Under 4.5
2.86
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
87%
BTTS Yes
1.14
13%
BTTS No
7.99
Clean Sheet
8%
12.17
5%
21.31
Win to Nil
4%
24.00
2%
65.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 3-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 5.7%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 3.06 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 2.50 for FC Thun, a combined total of 5.56.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
BSC Young Boys come into this having played 48 games, going 21W 14D 13L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. The sample for BSC Young Boys is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Thun sit at 1.77 PPG from 48 outings (27W 4D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BSC Young Boys on 1.60 PPG, FC Thun on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
BSC Young Boys's home form reads 12W 7D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Thun have taken 1.79 points per game from 24 outings (14W 1D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
BSC Young Boys are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 2.02 scored and 1.65 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: BSC Young Boys have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; FC Thun in 71%.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Blended
FC Thun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC Thun in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 21W 14D 13L in their last 48 games (1.60 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 27W 4D 17L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or FC Thun away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 1.79 PPG; FC Thun away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
BSC Young Boys have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2026, when BSC Young Boys won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BSC Young Boys's record when hosting FC Thun specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
BSC Young Boys
0
Draws
2
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC Thun?
From 5 meetings on record, BSC Young Boys have won 3, FC Thun have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Thun 0-6 BSC Young Boys.
Who has won more matches between BSC Young Boys and FC Thun?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — BSC Young Boys at 71%, FC Thun at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for BSC Young Boys and 79% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BSC Young Boys play FC Thun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of BSC Young Boys's games and 75% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of BSC Young Boys's matches and 79% of FC Thun's.
Do BSC Young Boys and FC Thun tend to score early?
BSC Young Boys have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.