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Shock result as FC Thun defy the odds to beat BSC Young Boys 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat BSC Young Boys 1-2 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 1.87 xG and FC Thun 1.82 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BSC Young Boys fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.36 / defence 0.94 against FC Thun attack 1.32 / defence 0.81, drawn from 61/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 38% | Draw 26% | FC Thun 36%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC Thun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 79%, FC Thun 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

FC Thun's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights