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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC ST. Gallen defy the odds to beat BSC Young Boys 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat BSC Young Boys 1-2 at Stadion Wankdorf, Championship Group - 34, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 1.64 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.61 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.16 / defence 0.94 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.19 / defence 0.83, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 37% | Draw 27% | FC ST. Gallen 36%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC ST. Gallen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 65%, FC ST. Gallen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BSC Young Boys 1.54 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights