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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC ST. Gallen defy the odds to beat BSC Young Boys 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat BSC Young Boys 1-2 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 2.13 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.28 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BSC Young Boys fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.24 / defence 0.85 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 57% | Draw 21% | FC ST. Gallen 22%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a FC ST. Gallen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 61%, FC ST. Gallen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BSC Young Boys 1.63 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights