🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as BSC Young Boys edge out FC ST. Gallen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BSC Young Boys beat FC ST. Gallen 1-0 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 2.35 xG and FC ST. Gallen 0.78 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BSC Young Boys fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.34 / defence 0.75 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.83 / defence 1.06, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 72% | Draw 18% | FC ST. Gallen 10%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 56%, FC ST. Gallen 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BSC Young Boys 1.82 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BSC Young Boys win broke the near-deadlock. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights