🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

BSC Young Boys and FC Sion share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Wankdorf, Championship Group - 38, as BSC Young Boys and FC Sion drew 3-3 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 1.62 xG and FC Sion 1.47 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. BSC Young Boys beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Sion outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.15 / defence 0.95 against FC Sion attack 1.08 / defence 0.83, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 39% | Draw 28% | FC Sion 33%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 65%, FC Sion 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BSC Young Boys 1.53 PPG, FC Sion 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights