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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Vasteras SK FK run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Varbergs BoIS FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasteras SK FK beat Varbergs BoIS FC 4-1 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 2.04 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.01 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.22 / defence 0.78 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.09, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 61% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 18%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 56%, Varbergs BoIS FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.44 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights